The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released its annual flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2025, highlighting the region’s resilience and policy capacity to withstand unprecedented global trade shocks following the US administration’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. These tariffs mark a sharp escalation in trade protectionism and have introduced heightened uncertainty far exceeding market expectations.
„The announcement of elevated and broad-based tariffs by the US, and the developments since, have added significant layers of complexity to the ASEAN+3 region’s outlook,“ said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. „Nevertheless, ASEAN+3 economies today are more resilient and diversified than during past global shocks and better positioned to navigate the unfolding tariff shock.“
The ASEAN+3 region faces a disproportionate impact from the US tariff measures. 13 out of the 14 member economies are subject to some of the highest effective tariff rates in the April 2 announcement, with a trade-weighted average estimated at 26 percent excluding China. These rates remain fluid and will likely evolve further in the coming months. These tariffs and the uncertainty generated by the constant shifts in policies are expected to weaken trade momentum, disrupt supply chains, and increase financial market volatility.
Still, the ASEAN+3 regional outlook is underpinned by resilient fundamentals. Prior to the announcement of the „Liberation Day“ tariffs, AMRO had projected the region to grow above 4.0 percent in 2025 and 2026, supported by robust domestic demand, recovering investment, and low, stable inflation. However, the US tariff measures have introduced considerable uncertainty. Under the initial Liberation Day scenario, regional growth could slip below 4.0 percent in 2025 and weaken further to 3.4 percent in 2026. These preliminary projections are subject to significant uncertainties, as the US administration continually adjusts its tariff measures in response to market reactions and counter measures by trading partners.
